Portfolio Analysis Report — 11-10-2026 19:35

1 Day

Window: 2026-10-10 → 2026-10-11 (2 rows)

Portfolio optimisation is skipped for single-day windows. Showing asset returns and single-asset stats only.

Asset Total Returns

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Assets priced in BTC — 1 Day (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 2 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 1 Day (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 2 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 1 Day (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 2 rows)

1 Week

Window: 2026-10-04 → 2026-10-11 (8 rows)

⚠ This window has only 8 rows. Covariance estimates are noisy — treat allocation weights as directional signals, not precise recommendations.

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 1 Week, the strongest asset was TSLA (3.27%), while the weakest was SOL (-10.01%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 8.36%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 62.0%, GOOGL 23.8%, GOLD 14.2%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 1.81%.
- The best single asset was TSLA, returning 3.27%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 18.098.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with max drawdown of -0.32%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.81x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 1 Week (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 8 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 1 Week (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 8 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 1 Week (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 8 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 62.0%, GOOGL 23.8%, GOLD 14.2%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOOGL 50.0%, GOLD 26.8%, SPX 23.2%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOOGL 50.0%, GOLD 26.8%, SPX 23.2%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOOGL 50.0%, GOLD 26.8%, SPX 23.2%
• Highest-return single asset: TSLA — 3.27%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.809x

1 Month

Window: 2026-09-11 → 2026-10-11 (31 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 1 Month, the strongest asset was BTC (7.52%), while the weakest was GOLD (-4.37%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 9.41%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 85.4%, GOLD 14.6%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 4.47%.
- The best single asset was BTC, returning 7.52%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 4.108.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar, with max drawdown of -1.90%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.68x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 1 Month (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 31 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 1 Month (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 31 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 1 Month (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 31 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 85.4%, GOLD 14.6%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 30.6%, GOOGL 25.5%, BTC 23.4%, TSLA 20.5%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 30.6%, GOOGL 25.5%, BTC 23.4%, TSLA 20.5%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 85.4%, GOLD 14.6%
• Highest-return single asset: BTC — 7.52%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.681x

3 Months

Window: 2026-07-12 → 2026-10-11 (92 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 3 Months, the strongest asset was SOL (42.26%), while the weakest was TSLA (-6.15%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 11.02%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 93.6%, GOLD 6.4%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 23.71%.
- The best single asset was SOL, returning 42.26%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 4.900.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar, with max drawdown of -3.19%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.78x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 3 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 92 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 3 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 92 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 3 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 92 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 93.6%, GOLD 6.4%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — JLP 50.0%, BTC 31.5%, SPX 18.5%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — JLP 50.0%, BTC 31.5%, SPX 18.5%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 93.6%, GOLD 6.4%
• Highest-return single asset: SOL — 42.26%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.782x

6 Months

Window: 2026-04-11 → 2026-10-11 (184 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 6 Months, the strongest asset was HYPE (101.62%), while the weakest was GOLD (-11.93%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 11.99%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 95.6%, GOLD 4.4%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 36.15%.
- The best single asset was HYPE, returning 101.62%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 3.368.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar, with max drawdown of -4.69%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 2.81x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 6 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 184 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 6 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 184 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 6 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 184 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 95.6%, GOLD 4.4%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 50.0%, HYPE 25.0%, GOOGL 20.0%, JLP 5.0%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 50.0%, HYPE 25.0%, GOOGL 20.0%, JLP 5.0%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 95.6%, GOLD 4.4%
• Highest-return single asset: HYPE — 101.62%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 2.811x

12 Months

Window: 2025-10-11 → 2026-10-11 (366 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 12 Months, the strongest asset was HYPE (131.16%), while the weakest was SOL (-38.58%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 12.59%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 93.5%, GOLD 6.5%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 49.62%.
- The best single asset was HYPE, returning 131.16%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 2.438.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar, with max drawdown of -9.37%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 2.64x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 12 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 366 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 12 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 366 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 12 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 366 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 93.5%, GOLD 6.5%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 50.0%, GOOGL 36.3%, HYPE 13.7%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 50.0%, GOOGL 36.3%, HYPE 13.7%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 93.5%, GOLD 6.5%
• Highest-return single asset: HYPE — 131.16%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 2.643x

24 Months

Window: 2024-10-11 → 2026-10-11 (731 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 24 Months, the strongest asset was HYPE (1301.74%), while the weakest was SOL (-24.78%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 14.17%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 71.8%, GOLD 27.4%, JLP 0.8%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 215.43%.
- The best single asset was HYPE, returning 1301.74%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 3.039.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar-C50, with max drawdown of -12.15%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 6.04x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 24 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 731 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: HYPE)

Assets priced in GOLD — 24 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 731 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: HYPE)

Assets priced in SPX — 24 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 731 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: HYPE)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 71.8%, GOLD 27.4%, JLP 0.8%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOOGL 41.9%, GOLD 40.8%, HYPE 17.2%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOOGL 41.9%, GOLD 40.8%, HYPE 17.2%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar-C50 — SPX 50.0%, GOLD 37.4%, GOOGL 6.3%, JLP 6.2%
• Highest-return single asset: HYPE — 1301.74%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 6.043x

3 Years

Window: 2023-10-11 → 2026-10-11 (1097 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 3 Years, the strongest asset was SOL (396.92%), while the weakest was TSLA (45.52%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 12.99%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 68.3%, GOLD 29.7%, JLP 2.0%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was Equal, returning 189.37%.
- The best single asset was SOL, returning 396.92%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 2.301.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar-C50, with max drawdown of -12.12%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 2.10x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 3 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1097 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: JLP)

Assets priced in GOLD — 3 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1097 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: JLP)

Assets priced in SPX — 3 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1097 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: JLP)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 68.3%, GOLD 29.7%, JLP 2.0%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: Equal — BTC 12.5%, ETH 12.5%, SOL 12.5%, GOLD 12.5%, SPX 12.5%, TSLA 12.5%, GOOGL 12.5%, JLP 12.5%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOLD 42.2%, SPX 35.6%, GOOGL 13.6%, SOL 5.1%, BTC 2.7%, JLP 0.8%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar-C50 — SPX 50.0%, GOLD 38.8%, JLP 6.9%, GOOGL 4.3%
• Highest-return single asset: SOL — 396.92%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 2.096x

4 Years

Window: 2022-10-12 → 2026-10-11 (1461 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 4 Years, the strongest asset was BTC (333.14%), while the weakest was TSLA (76.16%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 12.93%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 65.0%, GOLD 35.0%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was Equal, returning 275.62%.
- The best single asset was BTC, returning 333.14%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 2.134.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar, with max drawdown of -12.07%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.21x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: returns are less dependent on a single asset and are more broadly distributed.

Assets priced in BTC — 4 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1461 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 4 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1461 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 4 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1461 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 65.0%, GOLD 35.0%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: Equal — BTC 14.3%, ETH 14.3%, SOL 14.3%, GOLD 14.3%, SPX 14.3%, TSLA 14.3%, GOOGL 14.3%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOLD 41.2%, SPX 35.6%, GOOGL 14.0%, BTC 9.3%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 65.0%, GOLD 35.0%
• Highest-return single asset: BTC — 333.14%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.209x