Portfolio Analysis Report — 19-07-2026 19:35

1 Day

Window: 2026-07-18 → 2026-07-19 (2 rows)

Portfolio optimisation is skipped for single-day windows. Showing asset returns and single-asset stats only.

Asset Total Returns

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Assets priced in BTC — 1 Day (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 2 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 1 Day (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 2 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 1 Day (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 2 rows)

1 Week

Window: 2026-07-12 → 2026-07-19 (8 rows)

⚠ This window has only 8 rows. Covariance estimates are noisy — treat allocation weights as directional signals, not precise recommendations.

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 1 Week, the strongest asset was ETH (3.79%), while the weakest was HYPE (-9.10%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 10.61%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 100.0%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 2.49%.
- The best single asset was ETH, returning 3.79%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 6.064.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar, with max drawdown of -1.51%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.52x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 1 Week (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 8 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 1 Week (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 8 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 1 Week (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 8 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 100.0%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — ETH 50.0%, BTC 50.0%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — ETH 50.0%, BTC 50.0%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 100.0%
• Highest-return single asset: ETH — 3.79%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.524x

1 Month

Window: 2026-06-19 → 2026-07-19 (31 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 1 Month, the strongest asset was ETH (9.54%), while the weakest was HYPE (-13.05%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 9.95%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 92.1%, GOLD 7.9%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 8.07%.
- The best single asset was ETH, returning 9.54%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 4.692.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar, with max drawdown of -2.19%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.18x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: returns are less dependent on a single asset and are more broadly distributed.

Assets priced in BTC — 1 Month (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 31 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 1 Month (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 31 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 1 Month (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 31 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 92.1%, GOLD 7.9%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — JLP 50.0%, ETH 47.0%, SOL 3.0%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — JLP 50.0%, ETH 47.0%, SOL 3.0%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 92.1%, GOLD 7.9%
• Highest-return single asset: ETH — 9.54%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.182x

3 Months

Window: 2026-04-19 → 2026-07-19 (92 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 3 Months, the strongest asset was HYPE (50.79%), while the weakest was GOLD (-17.27%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 12.74%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 98.4%, GOLD 1.0%, BTC 0.6%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 27.11%.
- The best single asset was HYPE, returning 50.79%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 4.077.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar, with max drawdown of -4.56%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.87x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 3 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 92 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 3 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 92 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 3 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 92 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 98.4%, GOLD 1.0%, BTC 0.6%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 50.0%, HYPE 46.5%, GOOGL 3.5%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 50.0%, HYPE 46.5%, GOOGL 3.5%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 98.4%, GOLD 1.0%, BTC 0.6%
• Highest-return single asset: HYPE — 50.79%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.874x

6 Months

Window: 2026-01-17 → 2026-07-19 (184 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 6 Months, the strongest asset was HYPE (140.74%), while the weakest was SOL (-46.93%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 14.03%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 93.9%, GOLD 6.1%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 65.22%.
- The best single asset was HYPE, returning 140.74%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 4.229.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar, with max drawdown of -9.35%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 2.16x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 6 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 184 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 6 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 184 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 6 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 184 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 93.9%, GOLD 6.1%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 50.0%, HYPE 46.4%, GOOGL 3.6%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 50.0%, HYPE 46.4%, GOOGL 3.6%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 93.9%, GOLD 6.1%
• Highest-return single asset: HYPE — 140.74%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 2.158x

12 Months

Window: 2025-07-19 → 2026-07-19 (366 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 12 Months, the strongest asset was GOOGL (87.92%), while the weakest was SOL (-56.93%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 12.35%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 90.9%, GOLD 9.1%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 54.87%.
- The best single asset was GOOGL, returning 87.92%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 2.870.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar, with max drawdown of -9.48%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.60x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 12 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 366 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 12 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 366 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 12 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 366 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 90.9%, GOLD 9.1%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOOGL 50.0%, SPX 34.0%, GOLD 11.7%, HYPE 4.3%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOOGL 50.0%, SPX 34.0%, GOLD 11.7%, HYPE 4.3%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 90.9%, GOLD 9.1%
• Highest-return single asset: GOOGL — 87.92%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.602x

24 Months

Window: 2024-07-19 → 2026-07-19 (731 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 24 Months, the strongest asset was HYPE (906.32%), while the weakest was SOL (-54.92%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 14.30%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 68.0%, GOLD 30.6%, JLP 1.3%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 167.54%.
- The best single asset was HYPE, returning 906.32%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 2.778.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar-C50, with max drawdown of -12.06%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 5.41x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 24 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 731 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: HYPE)

Assets priced in GOLD — 24 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 731 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: HYPE)

Assets priced in SPX — 24 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 731 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: HYPE)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 68.0%, GOLD 30.6%, JLP 1.3%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOLD 48.4%, GOOGL 31.7%, HYPE 15.0%, SPX 4.9%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOLD 48.4%, GOOGL 31.7%, HYPE 15.0%, SPX 4.9%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar-C50 — SPX 50.0%, GOLD 39.6%, JLP 6.4%, GOOGL 4.1%
• Highest-return single asset: HYPE — 906.32%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 5.410x

3 Years

Window: 2023-07-19 → 2026-07-19 (1097 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 3 Years, the strongest asset was SOL (189.20%), while the weakest was ETH (-0.78%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 12.82%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 64.9%, GOLD 31.7%, JLP 3.4%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 135.82%.
- The best single asset was SOL, returning 189.20%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 2.138.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar-C50, with max drawdown of -12.08%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.39x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 3 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1097 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: JLP)

Assets priced in GOLD — 3 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1097 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: JLP)

Assets priced in SPX — 3 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1097 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: JLP)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 64.9%, GOLD 31.7%, JLP 3.4%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOLD 46.0%, GOOGL 27.0%, SPX 18.5%, SOL 4.1%, JLP 3.9%, BTC 0.5%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOLD 46.0%, GOOGL 27.0%, SPX 18.5%, SOL 4.1%, JLP 3.9%, BTC 0.5%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar-C50 — SPX 50.0%, GOLD 39.7%, JLP 7.9%, GOOGL 2.4%
• Highest-return single asset: SOL — 189.20%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.393x

4 Years

Window: 2022-07-20 → 2026-07-19 (1461 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 4 Years, the strongest asset was GOOGL (207.15%), while the weakest was ETH (23.29%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 13.27%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 61.0%, GOLD 39.0%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was Equal, returning 181.08%.
- The best single asset was GOOGL, returning 207.15%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 1.812.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar-C50, with max drawdown of -12.68%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.14x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: returns are less dependent on a single asset and are more broadly distributed.

Assets priced in BTC — 4 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1461 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 4 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1461 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 4 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1461 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 61.0%, GOLD 39.0%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: Equal — BTC 14.3%, ETH 14.3%, SOL 14.3%, GOLD 14.3%, SPX 14.3%, TSLA 14.3%, GOOGL 14.3%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOLD 50.0%, SPX 25.6%, GOOGL 17.1%, BTC 7.3%, SOL 0.1%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar-C50 — SPX 50.0%, GOLD 48.6%, BTC 0.7%, GOOGL 0.7%
• Highest-return single asset: GOOGL — 207.15%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.144x