Portfolio Analysis Report — 09-08-2026 19:35

1 Day

Window: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-09 (2 rows)

Portfolio optimisation is skipped for single-day windows. Showing asset returns and single-asset stats only.

Asset Total Returns

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Assets priced in BTC — 1 Day (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 2 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 1 Day (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 2 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 1 Day (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 2 rows)

1 Week

Window: 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-09 (8 rows)

⚠ This window has only 8 rows. Covariance estimates are noisy — treat allocation weights as directional signals, not precise recommendations.

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 1 Week, the strongest asset was GOLD (8.66%), while the weakest was GOOGL (-0.51%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 7.13%.
- That defensive allocation was: ETH 70.7%, GOOGL 24.7%, JLP 4.6%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 5.18%.
- The best single asset was GOLD, returning 8.66%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 91.792.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with max drawdown of -0.46%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.67x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 1 Week (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 8 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 1 Week (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 8 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 1 Week (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 8 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — ETH 70.7%, GOOGL 24.7%, JLP 4.6%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 50.0%, GOLD 29.0%, SOL 14.2%, HYPE 4.8%, TSLA 2.0%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 50.0%, GOLD 29.0%, SOL 14.2%, HYPE 4.8%, TSLA 2.0%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 50.0%, GOLD 29.0%, SOL 14.2%, HYPE 4.8%, TSLA 2.0%
• Highest-return single asset: GOLD — 8.66%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.672x

1 Month

Window: 2026-07-10 → 2026-08-09 (31 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 1 Month, the strongest asset was GOLD (7.20%), while the weakest was TSLA (-19.42%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 13.25%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 79.2%, JLP 20.8%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 5.43%.
- The best single asset was GOLD, returning 7.20%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 4.961.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with max drawdown of -2.41%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.33x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 1 Month (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 31 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 1 Month (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 31 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 1 Month (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 31 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 79.2%, JLP 20.8%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOLD 50.0%, SPX 37.9%, ETH 12.1%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOLD 50.0%, SPX 37.9%, ETH 12.1%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOLD 50.0%, SPX 37.9%, ETH 12.1%
• Highest-return single asset: GOLD — 7.20%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.325x

3 Months

Window: 2026-05-10 → 2026-08-09 (92 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 3 Months, the strongest asset was HYPE (26.81%), while the weakest was TSLA (-23.29%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 13.58%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 92.3%, GOLD 6.8%, BTC 0.8%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 18.41%.
- The best single asset was HYPE, returning 26.81%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 2.422.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar, with max drawdown of -4.81%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.46x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 3 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 92 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 3 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 92 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 3 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 92 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 92.3%, GOLD 6.8%, BTC 0.8%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 50.0%, HYPE 50.0%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 50.0%, HYPE 50.0%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 92.3%, GOLD 6.8%, BTC 0.8%
• Highest-return single asset: HYPE — 26.81%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.456x

6 Months

Window: 2026-02-07 → 2026-08-09 (184 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 6 Months, the strongest asset was HYPE (73.26%), while the weakest was TSLA (-20.07%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 14.07%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 92.2%, GOLD 6.5%, JLP 1.3%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 31.68%.
- The best single asset was HYPE, returning 73.26%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 2.670.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar, with max drawdown of -8.86%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 2.31x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 6 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 184 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 6 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 184 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 6 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 184 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 92.2%, GOLD 6.5%, JLP 1.3%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 50.0%, HYPE 29.0%, GOOGL 21.0%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — SPX 50.0%, HYPE 29.0%, GOOGL 21.0%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 92.2%, GOLD 6.5%, JLP 1.3%
• Highest-return single asset: HYPE — 73.26%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 2.312x

12 Months

Window: 2025-08-09 → 2026-08-09 (366 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 12 Months, the strongest asset was GOOGL (76.40%), while the weakest was SOL (-57.61%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 12.64%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 91.7%, GOLD 8.3%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 47.88%.
- The best single asset was GOOGL, returning 76.40%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 2.617.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar, with max drawdown of -9.44%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.60x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 12 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 366 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 12 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 366 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 12 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 366 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 91.7%, GOLD 8.3%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOOGL 42.3%, SPX 36.0%, GOLD 18.3%, HYPE 3.3%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOOGL 42.3%, SPX 36.0%, GOLD 18.3%, HYPE 3.3%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 91.7%, GOLD 8.3%
• Highest-return single asset: GOOGL — 76.40%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.596x

24 Months

Window: 2024-08-09 → 2026-08-09 (731 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 24 Months, the strongest asset was HYPE (796.11%), while the weakest was SOL (-51.18%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 14.18%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 69.2%, GOLD 29.0%, JLP 1.8%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 150.57%.
- The best single asset was HYPE, returning 796.11%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 2.882.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar-C50, with max drawdown of -12.12%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 5.29x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 24 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 731 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: HYPE)

Assets priced in GOLD — 24 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 731 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: HYPE)

Assets priced in SPX — 24 Months (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 731 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: HYPE)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 69.2%, GOLD 29.0%, JLP 1.8%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOLD 45.0%, GOOGL 27.5%, SPX 16.4%, HYPE 11.2%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOLD 45.0%, GOOGL 27.5%, SPX 16.4%, HYPE 11.2%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar-C50 — SPX 50.0%, GOLD 38.1%, JLP 6.9%, GOOGL 5.0%
• Highest-return single asset: HYPE — 796.11%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 5.287x

3 Years

Window: 2023-08-09 → 2026-08-09 (1097 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 3 Years, the strongest asset was SOL (213.31%), while the weakest was ETH (3.51%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 12.95%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 65.5%, GOLD 31.1%, JLP 3.5%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, returning 141.41%.
- The best single asset was SOL, returning 213.31%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 2.298.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar-C50, with max drawdown of -12.10%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.51x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: one asset is driving a large part of returns, so portfolio-level outperformance may be fragile.

Assets priced in BTC — 3 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1097 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: JLP)

Assets priced in GOLD — 3 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1097 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: JLP)

Assets priced in SPX — 3 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1097 rows · dotted = backfilled prefix: JLP)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 65.5%, GOLD 31.1%, JLP 3.5%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOLD 47.2%, SPX 28.5%, GOOGL 19.0%, SOL 4.8%, JLP 0.5%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOLD 47.2%, SPX 28.5%, GOOGL 19.0%, SOL 4.8%, JLP 0.5%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar-C50 — SPX 50.0%, GOLD 39.1%, JLP 7.9%, GOOGL 3.0%
• Highest-return single asset: SOL — 213.31%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.508x

4 Years

Window: 2022-08-10 → 2026-08-09 (1461 rows)

Claude Narrative Report

- Over 4 Years, the strongest asset was GOOGL (198.61%), while the weakest was ETH (3.66%).
- The lowest-risk tested portfolio was MinVar, with annualised volatility of 13.33%.
- That defensive allocation was: SPX 61.9%, GOLD 38.1%.
- The highest-return tested portfolio was Equal, returning 159.73%.
- The best single asset was GOOGL, returning 198.61%.
- The best risk-adjusted tested portfolio was MaxSharpe, with a Sharpe-like score of 1.823.
- The lowest-drawdown tested portfolio was MinVar-C50, with max drawdown of -12.79%.
- Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.24x versus the best tested portfolio.
- Interpretation: returns are less dependent on a single asset and are more broadly distributed.

Assets priced in BTC — 4 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1461 rows)

Assets priced in GOLD — 4 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1461 rows)

Assets priced in SPX — 4 Years (normalised to 1.0 at each asset's first real data date · smoothed · 1461 rows)

Allocation Model Guide

Equal: splits capital evenly across all selected assets. This is the neutral benchmark.

MinVar: the unconstrained minimum-variance portfolio. It seeks the lowest historical variance and is allowed to put 100% into one asset if that appears safest.

MinVar-C50: also a minimum-variance portfolio, but no asset may exceed 50%. This forces more diversification and is usually more practical.

MaxSharpe: the offensive portfolio. Maximises return per unit of risk (Sharpe ratio), capped at 50% per asset. Where MinVar and MinVar-C50 ask "how do I lose least?", MaxSharpe asks "how do I earn most efficiently?"

How to read this: when MaxSharpe and MinVar-C50 agree on weights, the signal is strong — the market is rewarding diversification. When they diverge sharply, the market is in a momentum-driven regime favouring concentration.

Exact allocations for this timeframe

Asset Total Returns

Correlation Matrix

Tested Portfolio Comparison

Single-Asset Comparison

This table answers the question: "What if I held 100% of just one asset?"

Deterministic Summary

• Best low-risk tested portfolio: MinVar — SPX 61.9%, GOLD 38.1%
• Highest-return tested portfolio: Equal — BTC 14.3%, ETH 14.3%, SOL 14.3%, GOLD 14.3%, SPX 14.3%, TSLA 14.3%, GOOGL 14.3%
• Best risk-adjusted tested portfolio: MaxSharpe — GOLD 50.0%, SPX 25.1%, GOOGL 17.3%, BTC 7.3%, SOL 0.2%
• Lowest-drawdown tested portfolio: MinVar-C50 — SPX 50.0%, GOLD 47.7%, GOOGL 1.4%, BTC 0.9%
• Highest-return single asset: GOOGL — 198.61%
• Single-asset dominance ratio: 1.243x